The Middle East conflict led to increased freight rates and prices, as well as supply shortages.

In March, billet prices rose by $10 to $40 per ton in most regional markets. In the Gulf states, the epicenter of the Iranian conflict, prices reached a record high of $80 per ton, unprecedented in other markets.

At the beginning of the month, prices rose due to increased freight rates caused by the Middle East conflict and disruptions to Iranian shipments. While there was no apparent shortage of billets in the global spot market, readjusting supply took time and was accompanied by price increases. Mid-month, the upward trend in prices continued and intensified against the backdrop of limited supply. By the end of the month, the market stabilized somewhat, but prices continued to climb due to rising scrap metal costs.

Turkey

In March, the average price of billets in the Black Sea (Black Sea FOB) market rose by $19, reaching a projected high of $459 per ton for 2025. The main reasons for the price increase were: strong demand for scrap steel in Turkey, higher freight rates, and rising rebar prices in the country (to $590-610 per ton). Russian billet exporters also benefited from the ruble's depreciation. The situation in Iran has introduced additional uncertainty: strikes targeting metallurgical companies could effectively halt exports of Iranian semi-finished products (approximately 230,000 tons of billets per month), which would benefit suppliers from China and Indonesia. Favorable price conditions are likely to persist during the Middle East conflict. With high freight rates, Russian billet supplies appear more competitive.

In March, the average price of square billets under Turkish Ex-Works (Ex-Works) also rose by $33 to $538 per ton. According to Kalanish, the Kardemir plant sold 70,000 tons of billets in March, with prices rising by $15 after a series of price reductions in previous months. In a tender held mid-March, the winning bid for S235JR grade billets was $505 per ton, and the winning bid for B420 grade billets was $510 per ton. These prices exclude the 20% VAT.

According to data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK), Turkey's billet imports in January decreased by 17.6% compared to December, to 294,000 tons. The main suppliers were China (64,000 tons, down 38% year-on-year) and Ukraine (47,000 tons, up 126% year-on-year), accounting for 21.7% and 15.8% of the market share, respectively. Notably, Russia—the largest supplier in 2025—saw its billet imports decrease by 52% year-on-year to 38,000 tons.

China

According to Kallanish, the average price of Tangshan steel billets rose by $8 in March, reaching $481 per ton. The price increase in the second half of the month was mainly driven by rising steel futures prices and increased natural gas costs. Despite intermittent shutdowns at rolling mills due to environmental restrictions, the market remained generally active.

Persian Gulf

The conflict surrounding Iran has had a significant impact on the steel product market and prices throughout the Middle East. According to Kallanish, the average price in the Persian Gulf countries rose by $79 in March, reaching $523 per ton (CIF). This significant increase is related to a shortage of steel billets and logistical constraints in the region. Historically, the largest importers of Iranian steel billets have been the Gulf states—Oman, the UAE, and Qatar.

Local billet producers are facing shortages of raw materials (direct reduced iron, refractories, etc.). Some companies are attempting to import raw materials from Russia but are facing competition from the Turkish market.

Italy

As of the end of March, the average price (ex-factory price) of Italian square billets had slightly decreased from the end of February to $592 per ton, compared to $600 per ton in February.